The first 14 days of your offering might be the most important ...
A startup's first 14 days predict how its entire raise ends. We can prove it.
We tested it out of sample across 6,300+ offerings. The fastest-starting quartile finished strong 96% of the time. The slowest quartile? 12%.
The signal holds up year after year (AUC 0.88 to 0.92). Momentum isn't a vibe. It's measurable, and it's predictive.
To be clear, this predicts the raise, not the investment return.
A question for the operators: if the first two weeks are this decisive, is a slow-starting campaign already finished, or can a raise still be saved once it stalls?
Comment "CCLEAR" and I'll send you the full brief.
...moreSilicon Valley's grip on startup capital is slipping.
In crowdfunding, the data already shows it. 64% of funded Reg CF capital now goes to companies outside California, New York, and Massachusetts, up from 47% in 2016. The top five states' share fell from 74% to 52%. California alone went from 44% to 26%.
And the per-resident leaders aren't who you'd guess: Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado. Take away the gatekeepers and the map of where innovation gets funded looks nothing like the venture map.
A real question: is capital actually decentralizing, or is crowdfunding just reaching the places venture was never going to fund anyway? Curious which way people see it.
Comment "CCLEAR" and I'll send you the full brief.
...moreInstrument Fit: Matching the Security to the Business in Regulated Investment Crowdfunding
When Regulation Crowdfunding (Title III of the JOBS Act) launched in 2016, the industry's first challenge was simple: prove that ordinary investors could participate responsibly in private-company investing and that startups could successfully raise capital from their communities.
To do that, the market relied on familiar securities. Common stock, convertible notes, and later SAFEs had already been developed for venture-backed startups pursuing rapid growth and eventual exits.
That made sense.
Today, however, Regulated Investment Crowdfunding (the umbrella term CfPA has adopted as a Recommended Best Practice for the SEC- and FINRA-regulated exemptions created by the JOBS Act, of which Regulation Crowdfunding is one) serves a much broader market. Established operating businesses, consumer brands, technology startups, local enterprises, real estate ventures, and mission-driven organizations all raise capital under these exemptions. These businesses have very different capital needs and v...more
Words matter in your pitch - We know ... we analyzed 6,800 of them!
We read 6,800 funded RegCF pitches. The words that raise the most money aren't the ones you'd expect.
The gap between a top-quartile raise and a bottom-quartile one is 24x. So we ran the language through NLP to see what separates them.
It isn't hype. "Revolutionary" and "disrupt" don't move the needle. Sentiment, length, and buzzwords like "traction" show no advantage at all.
What the big raises actually talk about: FDA approvals, clinical pipelines, recurring revenue, clean energy, real assets. The language mirrors the business — substance beats spin.
Comment "CCLEAR" and I'll send you the full brief. #Startups #NLP #Fundraising #RegCF #DataScience
...moreOne Year After the SEC Capital Markets Subcommittee Hearing: Investor Protection Is Still the Missing Piece
A little over a year ago I sat through the SEC Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on Regulation Crowdfunding (Reg CF) and Regulation A+. I walked away with mixed feelings. The advocates pushing to expand these pathways for capital formation got me fired up, especially for what it means for small businesses and everyday investors. But I was also frustrated that comprehensive risk mitigation and investor protection barely came up.
Twelve months later, not much has changed on that front. The advocacy for expanding Reg CF and Reg A+ has only gotten louder, and rightly so. But the conversation around protecting the unaccredited investors these frameworks are designed to welcome still hasn't caught up. So I want to take another swing at why that matters, and why TigerMark D&O exists to fill exactly that gap.
A quick note on what's changed on my end. TigerMark now sits under Equal Parts Insurance, the AI-native brokerage and MGA I joined when Assurely was acquired in 2025. The product i...more
2025 Regulated Investment Crowdfunding Summit - Detailed Agenda
2025 Regulated Investment Crowdfunding Summit
Overview
Day 1 – Tuesday, October 21, 2025: Advocacy Visits & Pre-event Reception
- AM & Afternoon: Constituent drop-ins (Capitol Hill) and regulator visits (DC)
- 5:30 – 7:30 PM: Cocktail Reception (@ National Union Building, 918 F St NW, Washington, DC 20004)
Day 2 – Wednesday, October 22, 2025: Summit Conference
- 8:30 AM–5:30 PM: Detailed agenda below. (@ National Union Building, 918 F St NW, Washington, DC 20004)
- ~6:00 – 8:00 PM: No-host happy hour / dinner (nearby venue TBD)
Day 1 · Tuesday, Oct 21 — Advocacy & Reception
25 Reasons to Invest Through Regulated Investment Crowdfunding for Social Impact
I’ve spent years immersed in the world of impact investing, and if I sound a little fired up today, it’s because I am. The traditional capital markets continue to overlook brilliant, diverse entrepreneurs—especially those working in and for their communities. That’s why I’m passionate about regulated investment crowdfunding (Regulation Crowdfunding or Reg CF, particularly). It’s not perfect, but it’s the most promising tool we have to democratize access to capital, empower underrepresented founders, and reshape our economy from the ground up. Here are just a few of the reasons I believe so deeply in this movement:
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Democratization of Capital
Reg CF breaks down barriers that historically excluded all but the wealthy from investing in private ventures. -
Access to Overlooked Founders
Traditional VC overlooks diverse founders; Reg CF helps level the playing field by allowing the crowd to support talent the system ignores. -
Rooted in Community
Reg CF enables investment in local businesses a
CfPA Regulated Investment Crowdfunding and Leadership Summit 2024 - Detailed Agenda
Day 1 (10/22: Tues.) : Advocacy Visits & Pre-event Reception
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10:00 AM - 5:30 Advocacy Meetings
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Capitol Hill + Regulator visits CfPA members registered for the Summit may be eligible to attend some of the advocacy meetings. |
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5:30-8:00 PM Cocktail Reception |
Sunset Cocktail Reception Top of the Town - Top Floor and Rooftop (1400 14th Street North, Arlington, VA) (Streaming Music by DJ Scott McIntyre)
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Day 2 (10/23: Wed.) : Conference and Summit
Venue: Top of the Town (Top Floor 1400 14th Street North, Arlington, VA)
“One of the most magnificent views in Washington”
...more