A startup's first 14 days predict how its entire raise ends. We can prove it.

We tested it out of sample across 6,300+ offerings. The fastest-starting quartile finished strong 96% of the time. The slowest quartile? 12%.

The signal holds up year after year (AUC 0.88 to 0.92). Momentum isn't a vibe. It's measurable, and it's predictive.

To be clear, this predicts the raise, not the investment return.

A question for the operators: if the first two weeks are this decisive, is a slow-starting campaign already finished, or can a raise still be saved once it stalls?

Comment "CCLEAR" and I'll send you the full brief.   

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Comments

Devin Thorpe
Devin Thorpe 7/30/2026 12:04:36 PM

CCLEAR